The real facts....(kind of)...

The comments to my previous post referred to the datums in the Bowl final.

Instead of banking on datums derived on the results of a match between two teams that were 100 imps behind with a set to play to the two big monsters of bridge, I've spent an hour summarizing the cause of 6+IMP swings and some potential swings in the final at a high level.

I do not claim to be exhaustive and completely accurate. Perusing through this write-up might be illuminating. Am happy to accomodate any dissenting opinions and change (parts of) this review.

Set1
1.Fantoni-Nunes bid a light vulnerable game that goes three off.
2.Fantoni-Nunes miss a 25 HCP game on a misfit that Meckwell make.
3.Nickell misdefends a slam that Fantoni was probably going to go down in.
Meckwell bid the same not-so-hot slam and go down
4.Katz makes a tight 3NT on a favourable lead. Meckwell defeat game on a different lead. The choice of lead had an element of randomness due to system issues.

Set 2
1. Nickell Freeman miss a vulnerable game
2. Sementa revokes as declarer in vulnerable game after taking a winning view earlier. Unclear whether Katz should find the winning line at the other table.
3. Nickell Katz have a bidding accident resulting in defending a doubled making partscore
4. Sementa Duboin bid a light NV game that comes home.
5. Katz takes a rash action to bid a noplay slam.
6. SementaDuboin and NickellKatz miss a cold slam that is hard to reach in a competitive auction.
7. Meckwell steal at favourable with combined 17 HCP. No game makes other way despite a good fit and a shortage.
8. Meckwell overstretch to vul game

Set 3
1. Meckwell make a slam after Fantoni Nunes get active,not unreasonably so. Hamman Zia pass and declarer does not have the vital clue.
2. Meckwell make a winning competitive decision while Sementa Duboin flounder
3. Meckwell bid a light vulnerable game that goes two off
4. Complex 1NT hand that Versace makes versus Meckwell while Zia goes down

Set 4
1. Lauria mis-saw partner's bid and bids a noplay slam.
2. Katz makes a daring lead directional bid that pays off winning a vul game swing. Fantoni Nunes go down while Meck makes against Versace Lauria on a random lead decision.
3. Meckwell bid to superior game contract knowingly so while Fantoni Nunes dont.
4. Versace opts not to make a light takeout double leading to Meckwell stealing a hand where the opponents could have made a game.


Set 5
1. Zia makes a reckless bid leading to a vulnerable penalty.
2. Zia-Hamman miss a light nonvul game that Fantunes bid and make versus Meckwell.
3. Meckwell and ZiaHamman both go plus on a partscore deal when Duboin opts not to make a light takeout double.
4. Fantoni fails to double an invitational vulnerable auction with bad splits while Zia-Hamman do.
5. Duboin misdefends a vulnerable game versus Zia
6. Fantunes "heavy"weak NT style leads to missing vulnerable game.

Set 6
1. Sementa takes a losing view in a light vulnerable game that Meckwell stay out of.
2. Rodwell takes a losing line of play in game that Duboin gets right.
3. Zia makes a rash bid (that Versace avoids vs Meckwell) leading to a phantom sacrifice.
4. Hamman Zia defeat a touch and go vulnerable game that Meckwell stay out of.
5. Zia-Hamman drive to the 5-level, down one, all on their own after a bidding accident

Set 7
1. Zia makes an unfortunate lead caused by Hamman's misguided bid. Then makes a questionable play to let through a game. Good play by Nunes.
2. Nunes takes a losing line of play that Meck gets right.
3. Fantunes miss a game due to systemic issues that Meckwell bid.
4. Meckwell bid the better game while Fantunes go down in their choice.
5. Lauria Versace bid a cold light slam that Hamman Zia miss
6. Meckwell are overboard in a vulnerable game.
7. Versace Lauria play superior game. Hamman Zia bid the more natural game that hamman takes a losing view in.

Set 8
1. Lauria Versace catch Meckwell speeding for a penalty
2. Meckwell miss a light vulnerable game that Duboin Sementa bring in.
3. Hamman Zia bring in a marginal slam that Versace stays out of.