Tuesday, September 15, 2009

The real facts....(kind of)...

The comments to my previous post referred to the datums in the Bowl final.

Instead of banking on datums derived on the results of a match between two teams that were 100 imps behind with a set to play to the two big monsters of bridge, I've spent an hour summarizing the cause of 6+IMP swings and some potential swings in the final at a high level.

I do not claim to be exhaustive and completely accurate. Perusing through this write-up might be illuminating. Am happy to accomodate any dissenting opinions and change (parts of) this review.

1.Fantoni-Nunes bid a light vulnerable game that goes three off.
2.Fantoni-Nunes miss a 25 HCP game on a misfit that Meckwell make.
3.Nickell misdefends a slam that Fantoni was probably going to go down in.
Meckwell bid the same not-so-hot slam and go down
4.Katz makes a tight 3NT on a favourable lead. Meckwell defeat game on a different lead. The choice of lead had an element of randomness due to system issues.

Set 2
1. Nickell Freeman miss a vulnerable game
2. Sementa revokes as declarer in vulnerable game after taking a winning view earlier. Unclear whether Katz should find the winning line at the other table.
3. Nickell Katz have a bidding accident resulting in defending a doubled making partscore
4. Sementa Duboin bid a light NV game that comes home.
5. Katz takes a rash action to bid a noplay slam.
6. SementaDuboin and NickellKatz miss a cold slam that is hard to reach in a competitive auction.
7. Meckwell steal at favourable with combined 17 HCP. No game makes other way despite a good fit and a shortage.
8. Meckwell overstretch to vul game

Set 3
1. Meckwell make a slam after Fantoni Nunes get active,not unreasonably so. Hamman Zia pass and declarer does not have the vital clue.
2. Meckwell make a winning competitive decision while Sementa Duboin flounder
3. Meckwell bid a light vulnerable game that goes two off
4. Complex 1NT hand that Versace makes versus Meckwell while Zia goes down

Set 4
1. Lauria mis-saw partner's bid and bids a noplay slam.
2. Katz makes a daring lead directional bid that pays off winning a vul game swing. Fantoni Nunes go down while Meck makes against Versace Lauria on a random lead decision.
3. Meckwell bid to superior game contract knowingly so while Fantoni Nunes dont.
4. Versace opts not to make a light takeout double leading to Meckwell stealing a hand where the opponents could have made a game.

Set 5
1. Zia makes a reckless bid leading to a vulnerable penalty.
2. Zia-Hamman miss a light nonvul game that Fantunes bid and make versus Meckwell.
3. Meckwell and ZiaHamman both go plus on a partscore deal when Duboin opts not to make a light takeout double.
4. Fantoni fails to double an invitational vulnerable auction with bad splits while Zia-Hamman do.
5. Duboin misdefends a vulnerable game versus Zia
6. Fantunes "heavy"weak NT style leads to missing vulnerable game.

Set 6
1. Sementa takes a losing view in a light vulnerable game that Meckwell stay out of.
2. Rodwell takes a losing line of play in game that Duboin gets right.
3. Zia makes a rash bid (that Versace avoids vs Meckwell) leading to a phantom sacrifice.
4. Hamman Zia defeat a touch and go vulnerable game that Meckwell stay out of.
5. Zia-Hamman drive to the 5-level, down one, all on their own after a bidding accident

Set 7
1. Zia makes an unfortunate lead caused by Hamman's misguided bid. Then makes a questionable play to let through a game. Good play by Nunes.
2. Nunes takes a losing line of play that Meck gets right.
3. Fantunes miss a game due to systemic issues that Meckwell bid.
4. Meckwell bid the better game while Fantunes go down in their choice.
5. Lauria Versace bid a cold light slam that Hamman Zia miss
6. Meckwell are overboard in a vulnerable game.
7. Versace Lauria play superior game. Hamman Zia bid the more natural game that hamman takes a losing view in.

Set 8
1. Lauria Versace catch Meckwell speeding for a penalty
2. Meckwell miss a light vulnerable game that Duboin Sementa bring in.
3. Hamman Zia bring in a marginal slam that Versace stays out of.


  1. nice analysis - in set 3 though it appears that meckwell played with fantunes and also with lauria:)

  2. I'm very skeptical about your view that delivery is more important than concept. How would you categorize each of those swings: concept or delivery? Unless I misunderstand how you use the terms it looks like concept outnumbers delivery by three to one at least.

  3. I would instinctively say that at this level - the final of the Bermuda Bowl - it is all about two things:

    1. Delivery
    2. Luck

    At this level, the players are proven to have great talent, excellent systems, and excellent system agreement. The remaining variables of delivery and luck are what's left to determine the match outcome.

    Bill Jacobs

  4. I think concept issues do exist.
    For example, fantunes appear to blindly open all 14HCP hands as weak notrumps. Earlier in the event, one of them opened 1NT on something like

    He survived.

    The bridge gods ensured that this aberrant behavior was penalized when another of their heavy weak NTs (that others would open showing 15-17) in the final led to missing a cold vulnerable game.

    Looks like a stinky concept to my eyes...

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